Europe’s security landscape is increasingly shaped by interconnected geopolitical, economic and environmental risks. The ecological crisis exacerbates other security threats and can trigger abrupt systemic shocks.
The Finnish comprehensive security model and EU foresight frameworks provide a foundation for preparedness for environment-related risks; however, these risks are not sufficiently integrated into overall foresight and risk analysis.
This paper presents a framework for a systemic, anticipatory foresight approach that links vulnerability factors, environmental and transition impacts, and their societal consequences.
To produce effective preparedness measures, the analytical framework for environment-related risks needs to be integrated into existing foresight work.
Strengthening preparedness for environment-related security risks requires measures such as diversifying supply chains, identifying critical dependencies, boosting sustainable domestic production, and ensuring that measures to strengthen resilience are in line with efforts to mitigate the ecological crisis.
