18 September 2025
On 10 September, NATO fighter jets shot down Russian drones in NATO airspace, marking the first such instance since the full-scale war in Ukraine began. The incident serves as a test for Poland, Europe, and NATO: a weak response would embolden Russia, and given Trump’s disinterest in European security, this risk is amplified. Europe and NATO must therefore continue to demonstrate resolve.
The scale and depth of Russia’s latest drone incursion into Poland were unprecedented. Reports cite 19 drones, compared with the one or two seen in previous episodes. This time, they reached deep into the country, including Elbląg, 60 kilometres from Gdańsk, and near Łódź, 136 kilometres west of Warsaw. The incident is a triple test for Poland, Europe, and NATO.
Poland: A test of political unity
First, the incident tests Polish decision-making at a time of high domestic political polarization. To date, NATO countries have been content to publicly call out airspace violations. This time, Poland responded with force, shooting down several drones. The drones endangered Polish citizens and damaged residential areas. Poland recommended citizens to stay indoors and suspended flights at affected airports, including Warsaw Chopin Airport.
Polish President Karol Nawrocki and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk have been at loggerheads, each backed by their own camp of supporters. While Nawrocki has more synergy with similarly conservative Trump, Tusk embodies Poland’s ties to Europe. The incident tested whether the two leaders could work together in an emergency – and so far, their response to Russia’s provocations has been unified. But divisions could resurface if further incidents fuel public dissatisfaction with the authorities.
Poland’s firm response was also affected by the timing of the drone incursion, which occurred just before Russia’s Zapad military exercises began in its neighbourhood, including Belarus. The Zapad drills, which involve thousands of Russian and Belarusian troops, heighten regional tensions and are viewed with suspicion. Russia has previously used the exercises to mask provocations and aggressive acts against its neighbours, most notably in 2021, when the drills served as a staging ground for forces later used to launch the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
The event also reflects Russia’s use of plausible deniability as a strategy. Prime Minister Tusk noted that the drones had been launched from Belarus, while Belarusian officials claimed they had strayed off course, blaming GPS jamming or faulty mechanics. Regardless, Russia’s active use of Belarus as a launchpad for drone attacks would affect Polish and NATO calculations about their security environment.
Europe: A test of the transatlantic relationship
Second, the incident tests the transatlantic relationship and Europe’s ability to step up for its own security. Just a few weeks ago, US President Donald Trump stood alongside Polish President Nawrocki and pledged to support Warsaw “all the way”. Russia’s attack directly challenged this pledge. Trump’s initial public reactions were muted, and his attention quickly turned to domestic issues. Following the spectacle in Alaska, Trump seems to be considering his next steps. A failure by the United States to respond firmly would further erode trust between European capitals and Washington and could undermine the credibility of American security guarantees in European eyes.
While Poland’s response mitigated the immediate threat, the incident revealed how vulnerable Europe is to mass drone incursions. On a strategic level, Russia could attempt to use similar incidents to manipulate Europe’s risk aversion to escalation. Drones can be used to probe defences and remind European allies of the costs of continued support for Ukraine, as well as the dangers of promising Ukraine tangible security guarantees. Europe must resist such coercion.
In her State of the European Union address, Ursula von der Leyen referenced a “drone wall” to protect Europe against Russia, although details and a timetable remain vague. Other measures could also be taken. For example, Estonia and Latvia have closed their eastern airspace in response to the incident.
NATO: A test of defence and deterrence
Finally, Russia’s drone incursions inevitably test NATO’s cohesion and strategy of deterrence. Poland’s activation of NATO’s Article Four, which requests consultation from allies, signals to Russia that the alliance takes the situation seriously. It also reminds NATO allies that this is not a one-off event, but rather part of a protracted security situation.
The multilateral nature of the response highlights the strength of allied unity but also exposes gaps in European capabilities. NATO’s response consisted of Polish F-16s, Dutch F-35s, German Patriots, Italian airborne early warning aircraft (AWACS), and NATO’s Multinational Multi-Role Tanker Transport (MRTT) aircraft. While these assets successfully intercepted many targets, some drones still got through.
To bolster readiness, NATO has launched Operation Eastern Sentry on the alliance’s eastern flank. The operation faces multiple challenges: it is prohibitively expensive, slow, and inefficient to down cheap drones with modern fighter jets, especially in the numbers that Russia is producing. At the same time, many NATO allies, including the US, have already transferred air defence systems and ammunition to Ukraine, so ramping up NATO’s air defences should not come at the expense of meeting Ukrainian needs. European capabilities will have to be extended along NATO’s eastern flank according to the intensity of the threat, and NATO will need to carefully consider when to use force against Russian drones. The alliance can also apply lessons from Kyiv – where drones and electronic warfare have been used to counter Russian drone attacks – to improve its own responses.
Experts have warned that Russia’s test of NATO would not come as a flood, as in Ukraine, but rather a steady trickle – a leak of small attacks to probe weak points and sow division and discord by design. Poland must maintain political unity, and Europe and NATO must be prepared to signal that they will not tolerate such provocations and are prepared to withstand Russia’s tests. In the short term, the best option is to impose higher costs on Russia through tightened sanctions and more robust military support for Ukraine, while also accelerating the production and procurement of anti-drone and air defence systems to fill existing gaps.
Photo: Czarek Sokolowski / AP / Lehtikuva
