The emerging geoeconomic environment of strategic capitalism is reshaping both the conditions under which the EU operates and the underlying logic of growth. The EU’s current growth model relies heavily on externally sourced inputs, technologies, and infrastructures, leaving it structurally fragile in this new environment.
Europe’s innovation future therefore hinges on developing a growth model that better aligns competitiveness, control over critical economic flows, and the direction of innovation. This will require stronger alignment of policies at the national and EU levels.
Four innovation futures scenarios illustrate Europe’s possible growth-model trajectories: Dependent Europe, Fortress Europe, Fragmented Europe, and Strategic Europe. Only the last succeeds in aligning all the key elements of the new growth model, leading to sustained European technological leadership.
