Eleven months into Donald Trump’s second term, NATO officials and outside observers of transatlantic defense and security relations can be forgiven for their cautious assessments of the U.S. administration’s approach to date and its goals and strategy for the future. Worst-case fears of U.S. retrenchment from its prominent role in the Alliance have not been realized. Indeed, there is some good news: overall, Allies’ defense investments are increasing; enhancements of NATO’s collective capabilities, command structure, and SACEUR’s authorities have not been jettisoned; and the integration of Finland and Sweden has proceeded smoothly.
On the other hand, multiple uncertainties surround Russia’s war on Ukraine. Russian assaults on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, combined with grinding pressure on Ukraine’s ground forces, challenge that country’s resilience. Russian “gray zone” actions directed at several Allies are testing Alliance solidarity and responsiveness. Recent reports of a 28-point “peace plan” drafted by the Trump administration that offers major concessions to Russia almost certainly will renew doubts in Allied capitals regarding the administration’s commitment to Ukraine’s security, independence, and territorial integrity.
Meanwhile, geostrategic realignments among the West’s adversaries pose new risks to the United States and its allies in and beyond Europe. As Julianne Smith and co-author Lindsey Ford describe in a recent Foreign Affairs essay:
“The United States’ adversaries are coordinating with one another in unprecedented ways, creating a more unified theater of competition in Eurasia. In response, U.S. allies are coalescing […] [However,] Washington is now encouraging its Asian and European allies to stick to their neighborhood—a throwback foreign policy that is ill suited to the current moment.”
Julianne Smith, President and Co-Founder of Clarion Strategies, was U.S. Permanent Representative to NATO (with the rank of ambassador) from 2021 to 2024 after serving as a senior advisor to Secretary of State Blinken. During the Obama administration, she was Acting National Security Advisor (NSA) to Vice President Biden.
Programme
Opening words:
Maria Lindén, Research Fellow, FIIA
Speaker:
Julianne Smith, President and Co-Founder of Clarion Strategies, former U.S. Permanent Representative to NATO
Host:
Leo Michel, Non-Resident Fellow, FIIA
Chair:
Matti Pesu, Senior Research Fellow, FIIA
Transatlantic Currents is a monthly webinar series hosted by FIIA’s Center on US Politics and Power featuring American experts on political science and international relations. The series covers a wide array of timely topics from foreign and defense policy to US domestic issues of particular interest to the transatlantic community. The webinars are hosted by FIIA Non-Resident Fellows Ambassador (retired) Deborah McCarthy and Leo Michel.
Photo credit: Nato
The event is organized in collaboration with the U.S. Embassy in Finland.
