Eleven months into Donald Trump’s second term, NATO officials and outside observers of transatlantic defense and security relations can be forgiven for their cautious assessments of the U.S. administration’s approach to date and its goals and strategy for the future. Worst-case fears of U.S. retrenchment from its prominent role in the Alliance have not been realized. Indeed, there is some good news: overall, Allies’ defense investments are increasing; enhancements of NATO’s collective capabilities, command structure, and SACEUR’s authorities have not been jettisoned; and the integration of Finland and Sweden has proceeded smoothly.
On the other hand, multiple uncertainties surround Russia’s war on Ukraine. Russian assaults on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, combined with grinding pressure on Ukraine’s ground forces, challenge that country’s resilience. Russian “gray zone” actions directed at several Allies are testing Alliance solidarity and responsiveness. Recent reports of a 28-point “peace plan” drafted by the Trump administration that offers major concessions to Russia almost certainly will renew doubts in Allied capitals regarding the administration’s commitment to Ukraine’s security, independence, and territorial integrity.
Meanwhile, geostrategic realignments among the West’s adversaries pose new risks to the United States and its allies in and beyond Europe. As Julianne Smith and co-author Lindsey Ford describe in a recent Foreign Affairs essay:
“The United States’ adversaries are coordinating with one another in unprecedented ways, creating a more unified theater of competition in Eurasia. In response, U.S. allies are coalescing […] [However,] Washington is now encouraging its Asian and European allies to stick to their neighborhood—a throwback foreign policy that is ill suited to the current moment.”
Julianne Smith, President and Co-Founder of Clarion Strategies, was U.S. Permanent Representative to NATO (with the rank of ambassador) from 2021 to 2024 after serving as a senior advisor to Secretary of State Blinken. During the Obama administration, she was Acting National Security Advisor (NSA) to Vice President Biden.
Programme
Opening words:
Maria Lindén, Research Fellow, FIIA
Speaker:
Julianne Smith, President and Co-Founder of Clarion Strategies, former U.S. Permanent Representative to NATO
Host:
Leo Michel, Non-Resident Fellow, FIIA
Chair:
Matti Pesu, Senior Research Fellow, FIIA
Transatlantic Currents is a monthly webinar series hosted by FIIA’s Center on US Politics and Power featuring American experts on political science and international relations. The series covers a wide array of timely topics from foreign and defense policy to US domestic issues of particular interest to the transatlantic community. The webinars are hosted by FIIA Non-Resident Fellows Ambassador (retired) Deborah McCarthy and Leo Michel.
Photo credit: Nato
The event is organized in collaboration with the U.S. Embassy in Finland.
Puhujat
Research Fellow, FIIA
Maria Lindén is a Research Fellow at the Center on US Politics and Power of the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, and a PhD student at the University of Tampere. She is the author of the narrative non-fiction book Trumpin kansa (Trump’s People, Into Kustannus 2020) and a former news journalist.
Lindén’s main area of expertise is the United States’ domestic politics. Her current research focuses on the crisis of liberal democracy in the present-day United States, especially electoral manipulation. She lived in Boston from 2015 to 2019, working as a freelance journalist covering American politics for the Finnish News Agency and other Finnish media outlets.
President and Co-Founder of Clarion Strategies, former U.S. Permanent Representative to NATO
Julianne Smith, President and Co-Founder of Clarion Strategies, was U.S. Permanent Representative to NATO (with the rank of ambassador) from 2021 to 2024 after serving as a senior advisor to Secretary of State Blinken. During the Obama administration, she was Acting National Security Advisor (NSA) to Vice President Biden.
Non-Resident Fellow, FIIA
Leo Michel is Non-Resident Fellow at the Finnish Institute for International Affairs and Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council. His previous government positions included: Distinguished Research Fellow at the Institute for National Strategic Studies; Director for NATO Policy and Director for Non-Nuclear Arms Control in the Office of the Secretary of Defense and Deputy U.S. Representative to the U.S.-Russia Bilateral Consultative Commission as well as other government positions. Michel holds a M.A. from Johns Hopkins School for Advanced International Studies and a B.A. from Princeton University.
Senior Research Fellow, FIIA
Matti Pesu is a Senior Research Fellow in the Finnish foreign policy, Northern European security, and NATO research programme at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs. He has led multiple research projects analyzing Finland’s security policy and NATO policy. Since the beginning of 2023, Pesu has been leading FIIA’s Nordic network. Pesu has worked at FIIA since 2017 as a Visiting Fellow, Research Fellow, and Senior Research Fellow.