With President Trump and President Putin announcing the suspension of US and Russian obligations
under the INF Treaty (Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty), this landmark accomplishment of the Cold
War might cease to exist as of August 2019. Such a development could have far-reaching consequences for
European and global security. As Russia would face no legal constraints on development and deployment
of land-based cruise or ballistic missiles specifically banned by the INF Treaty, the US, in consultation with
NATO, would need to consider its potential next steps, including controversial military countermeasures
on and/or offshore European territory. Also, China’s growing missile capabilities, which are not subject
to any treaty constraint, are of significant concern to Washington and its Asia-Pacific allies, as well as
Moscow. However, any effort to negotiate a new agreement on intermediate-range ballistic and cruise
missiles that includes US, Russian, Chinese, and possibly other forces would face enormous obstacles.
The seminar is part of a FIIA-led research project, entitled ‘New challenges for strategic deterrence in the
21st century’, which is part of the implementation of the Government Plan for Analysis, Assessment and
Research for 2018.
