AMOC tipping point preparation in Finland (HIIPUVA) examines the consequences of a deteriorating Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in Finland and the Baltic Sea region. The project is funded by the Prime Minister’s Office as part of the research unit supporting Government decision-making (VN Tutkiva). The Finnish Meteorological Institute leads the project, and in addition to the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, partners include Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke) and the Finnish Environment Institute (Syke).
AMOC is a key flow pattern in the Atlantic Ocean that transports heat from the Southern Hemisphere toward Europe, among other things. AMOC may weaken due to climate change, which could have significant impacts on ecosystems, livelihoods, security of supply, and overall security in Finland and the rest of Northern Europe.
The project aims to provide a scenario framework based on climate model simulations to outline future climatic changes in Finland and the Baltic Sea region. It will produce an in-depth assessment of impacts in three sectors critical to Finnish society: agriculture, energy systems, and logistics. In addition, the project seeks to identify recommended preparedness and adaptation measures for both the short and long term, as well as to assess their costs.
In the project, FIIA’s focus is particularly on foresight and the development of preparedness measures. The goal is to complement scenario information through stakeholder dialogue, which will help identify and assess sector-specific impact chains and practical preparedness needs. Emma Hakala and Helmi Räisänen from FIIA participate in the project.
The outputs will include a Finnish-language final report, a policy brief, and an English-language summary. The project began in June 2026 and will end in December 2027.