Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO have transformed the security landscape of the European Arctic. This article conceptualizes the region as a subcomplex within the broader European security system and argues that the nature of the regional security milieu has shifted from cooperation-based to deterrence-based stability. Whereas the High North was previously primarily characterized by restraint, institutional cooperation, and relatively low tensions, it is now increasingly managed through deterrence measures.
To capture the evolving allied dynamics in the region, the article further develops the concept of the Nordic deterrence cluster, presented in the introduction to this special issue, as a key driver of NATO’s emerging Arctic posture. This cluster performs both an external role, by signalling credible deterrence to Russia, and an internal role, by shaping NATO’s strategic planning. The article further contends that the cluster’s effectiveness depends on achieving deterrence cohesion, defined as a complementary division of labour, aligned threat perceptions, and a unified approach to deterrence implementation, including nuclear deterrence and escalation management. The article concludes with two policy recommendations: first, that the Nordic allies should strengthen synchronized defence planning; and, second, that they should further enhance strategic dialogue in order to reinforce cohesion across NATO’s northern flank.
