Climate change threatens Finland’s security of supply by increasing the likelihood of simultaneous crises and disruptions. Finland must prepare for climate risks as part of geopolitical crises and security policy, states a new report by the Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA) and the National Emergency Supply Agency (NESA).
“Climate risks cannot be treated as something that we can circle back to once military crises are over,” says Leading Researcher Emma Hakala from FIIA, who headed the research project.
For example, extreme weather events can disrupt production, transport and the supply of critical raw materials, all of which are essential for security of supply, while the very same supply chains are being hindered by wars and trade disputes.
“This year, heatwaves caused significant problems across Europe, and the impacts of such phenomena are also quickly felt in Finland,” Hakala points out.
The same problems recur in various sectors
The report examines the impacts of climate change on the supply of pharmaceuticals, critical raw materials and fertilisers and on the increasingly electrified energy system. The same problems recurred across all these sectors: production is concentrated in a small number of countries and dependent on individual suppliers.
“For example, pharmaceutical production is concentrated in China and India. Pandemics, conflicts and extreme weather events are driving up demand for medicines, while at the same time climate change is undermining production conditions and disrupting ports, rail links and cold chains,” says Postdoctoral Fellow Helmi Räisänen from FIIA, who is one of the authors of the report.
Similar dependencies also apply to raw materials that are critical to the energy transition, the supply of which may become a bottleneck in the near future.
“We may end up facing shortages of lithium, copper, cobalt, nickel and graphite, for example. Their production requires more energy and causes greater environmental damage than before, as the best mineral deposits have already been exhausted,” Räisänen estimates.
Security of supply requires a new kind of situational awareness
According to Hakala, Finland lacks shared situational awareness of how climate change, the energy transition and geopolitical crises collectively affect security of supply.
According to the report, climate risks need to be given greater weight in security of supply forecasting, exercises and scenario planning. Furthermore, we need a better overall picture of the critical raw material requirements for the green transition.
“When it comes to preparedness, it is no longer enough to assume that we can simply weather individual disruptions and then return to the way things were. In the future, disruptions may recur and accumulate, and the availability of certain resources may change permanently,” Hakala said.
According to the report, long-term security of supply can be strengthened by reducing dependence on raw materials and imports.
“Circularity and material efficiency also help to reduce climate and geopolitical risks,” says Hakala.
Climate change is changing the operating environment of security of supply
According to the NESA, the report speaks for the need to take climate risks into account more effectively in security of supply work.
“This is not merely a matter of environmental change, but of developments that affect society’s ability to function, its economic security and national security of supply. The better we understand the combined effects of different risks, the more effectively we will be able to prepare for how climate change will change the operating environment of security of supply,” says Preparedness Specialist Tapio Tourula from the NESA.
“When it comes to preparedness, we must consider both the climate risks that directly affect Finland and the indirect impacts transmitted through global interdependencies,” says Tourula.
Lisätietoja ja haastattelut:
09 432 7745
emma.hakala@fiia.fi
Emma Hakala is a leading researcher at FIIA. Her research is focused on environmental safety and geopolitics of climate change.
09 432 8032
helmi.raisanen@fiia.fi
Helmi Räisänen is a postdoctoral fellow at the Center on Climate Politics and Security at FIIA.
Tapio Tourula
029 5051042
tapio.tourula@nesa.fi
Tapio Tourula is a Senior Preparedness Specialist at the NESA.
The report is part of the FIIA research project entitled ‘Climate change and Finland’s security of supply’. The project examined the impacts of climate change and the mitigation thereof on Finland’s security of supply and measures for preparing for them. The NESA was the main financier of the project.