With Donald Trump back in the White House, will the United States be a credible, capable, and trustworthy ally? European and Canadian officials are reluctant to pose the question so bluntly. After all, the administration is in its early weeks, critical decisions lay ahead, and long-standing patterns of bilateral and multilateral defense cooperation, which were reinforced under President Biden, are not easily undone. Allies cannot appear to presume bad behavior by their most important partner without risking a counterproductive backlash.
Still, caution lights are flashing across multiple avenues of transatlantic defense critical to its strength and resilience.
Trump’s commitment to Ukraine in its existential struggle against Russia is far from certain. He quickly abandoned an unserious campaign promise to end the war “in 24 hours” and, for now, has stopped praising Vladimir Putin. Instead, he threatens tariffs and other sanctions on Russia to convince Putin to make a “quick deal.”
But given the unprecedented sanctions imposed by Biden’s administration – in close coordination with the EU, which Trump openly disdains – American experts doubt such threats will carry much weight with the Kremlin. Meanwhile, presidential advisors who once pilloried Russia for its brutal full-scale invasion now seem to think that a cease-fire in place and denying Ukraine any prospect of NATO membership would be part of a “realistic” settlement.