For several years, the United States has supported the remaking of the Middle East regional order by relying on Israeli military supremacy. This has given Israel exceptional operational freedom, fuelling competition and conflict between US allies in the region.
Two US allies, Turkey and Israel, maintain a ‘dual security space’ in Syria: Israel seeks aerial supremacy and control in the south, while Turkey exerts influence over the Syrian state and the rest of the country.
Both extend their influence in Syria to a degree that undermines Syrian sovereignty and limits opportunities for political solutions.
For now, the United States is mediating and containing Turkish–Israeli tensions in line with its own transactional interests, but the regional competition still has the potential to escalate in Syria and beyond.
The EU and its member states should invest in creating conditions that reduce the risk of external actors instrumentalizing social conflict in Syria, while monitoring the effects of the dual security space in the country.
