The Kremlin appears to be cautiously testing public sentiment on potential peace negotiations, using state-controlled media and elite statements to gauge reactions.
Support for peace talks is growing, particularly among regime supporters, reflecting increasing war fatigue. This shift is largely shaped by Putin’s narrative that the war is nearing its objectives, reinforcing the perception of a strategic victory.
Most Russians remain insulated from the direct consequences of the war, but exposure is gradually increasing through family connections. As a result, concerns about the country’s stability and the long-term costs of the war are rising.
Even if peace negotiations take place, Vladimir Putin – not the military – will claim the political benefits by framing the outcome as a victory. Despite the war, Russia’s military elite has not significantly increased its political influence, and public trust in the armed forces has declined.
