Germany is approaching its parliamentary elections in the most difficult economic and political conjuncture in decades. The German economy went into recession in 2023 and remained stagnant in 2024, with some iconic sectors such as the automotive industry mired in crisis. Having lost its main supplier of energy, Russia, Berlin faces significant structural issues. The domestic political scene is more fractured than in the past, with the rise of challenger parties – most notably the far-right Alternative for Germany – and the likelier need of broader coalitions to form governments at both state and federal level. In the 2010s, Germany was broadly seen as the leading member state in EU politics, alone or in tandem with France. While remaining essential to the EU, the Franco-German axis has been challenged by the crises of the 2020s, but the vacuum created by its weakness has not been, and arguably cannot be filled by other actors.
What are the main political and economic developments in Germany on the eve of the 2025 parliamentary elections? What are the likely repercussions at the European level, and what are the prospects for future German leadership in the EU? The seminar will discuss these issues against the wider background of Donald Trump’s reelection and the worsening geopolitical environment.
Programme
Welcoming remarks:
Tuomas Iso-Markku, Senior Research Fellow, FIIA
Speaker:
Nicolai von Ondarza, Head of Research Division of EU/Europe, German Institute for International and Security Affairs SWP
Comments:
Manuel Müller, Senior Research Fellow, FIIA
Sanna Salo, Senior Research Fellow, FIIA
Moderator:
Marco Siddi, Leading Researcher, FIIA