Enhancing small state preparedness: Risks of foreign ownership, supply disruptions and technological dependencies

SEMINAR
14.9.2023 10:00 - 16:00

 

The post-Cold War liberalist view, according to which interdependences supported a virtuous cycle of mutual gains, has given way to a realist-tinged view that regards economic interdependence as a cause of insecurity and an element in conflicts. In this new environment of increasing great power competition and technological decoupling, all states are not created equal. Major states such as the United States and China can be system shapers, whereas small states tend to be system takers. Major states have a greater ability to use their investment leverage, supply chain dominance and core technology control to exert leverage. For smaller states with open economies, such as Finland and Sweden, these capabilities of major powers create vulnerabilities in the form of security risks of foreign ownership, supply disruptions and critical technological dependencies. The seminar ponders how small states can mitigate such risks.

The seminar reports on research findings of the Academy of Finland -funded ForAc research project (https://sites.utu.fi/forac/en/), based in the University of Turku. It is also the launch event for the final report of the project, available as FIIA Report 74. For the report, a series of innovative Delphi backcasting exercises in Finland and Sweden brought together 113 sectoral experts and generalists to ponder ways to prevent dystopian scenarios from unfolding. The exercises produced a variety of effective means and measures that a small state could alternatively adopt.

PROGRAMME:

9:30-10:00     Coffee

Introduction of the ForAc project:
Mikael Mattlin, Research Professor, FIIA

Perceptions of risks: Shifting European views of China:
Shaun Breslin, Professor, Warwick University

Research findings from Delphi backcasting exercise:
Elina Sinkkonen, Senior Research Fellow, FIIA
Liisa Kauppila, Senior Researcher, University of Turku

Comments:
Sirkka Heinonen, Professor Emerita of Futures Studies, University of Turku

12:00-13:00    Lunch               

Finland’s and Sweden’s different approaches to investment screening:
Oscar Almén, Senior Researcher, Head of the Asia Program, Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI)
Liisa Kauppila, Senior Researcher, University of Turku

Comments:
Lasse Puroma, Senior Specialist, Ministry of Economic Affairs and Employment

Challenges in China’s domestic innovation ecosystem:
Outi Luova, Director, Asianet, University of Turku
Junhua Zhu, PhD candidate, University of Turku

14:30-15:00    Coffee break

Panel discussion and Q&A:
How can small states enhance their preparedness for uncertain futures?

Chair:
Shaun Breslin, Professor, Warwick University

Panel discussion:
Sirkka Heinonen, Professor Emerita of Futures Studies, University of Turku
Sinikukka Saari, Research Director, FIIA
Christian Fjäder, Managing Director, Geostrategic Intelligence Group
Elina Sinkkonen, Senior Research Fellow, FIIA

Puhujat

Henkilökuva Mikael Mattlinista. Silmälasit, vaaleansininen paita, vaaleat hiukset, harmaa puvuntakki.
Mikael Mattlin
Research Professor, FIIA
Shaun Breslin
Professor of Politics and International Studies, University of Warwick
Elina Sinkkonen
Elina Sinkkonen
Senior Research Fellow, FIIA
Liisa Kauppila
Senior Researcher, University of Turku
Sirkka Heinonen
Professor Emerita of Futures Studies, University of Turku
Oscar Almén
Senior Researcher, Head of the Asia program, Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI)
Lasse Puroma
Senior Specialist, Ministry of Economic Affairs and Employment
Outi Luova
University Lecturer, Center for East Asian Studies, University of Turku
Junhua Zhu
Doctoral Researcher, Centre for East Asian Studies, University of Turku
Sinikukka Saari
Sinikukka Saari
Research Director, FIIA
Christian Fjäder
CEO, Geostrategic Intelligence Group (Geostrat) Ltd.

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