France has long been a driving force in the European security debate, yet it has often failed to gain traction for its ideas. This is particularly true of President Emmanuel Macron’s push for European Strategic Autonomy and his warnings of US disengagement from Europe.
European fears that the Trump II administration will drastically reduce US engagement in European security affairs could now lead more European governments to see France as a more attractive partner.
Since 2022, French perceptions of the threat posed by Russia have been converging with the views of most of its eastern and Nordic NATO allies. This development also translates into greater French military engagement on NATO’s eastern flank.
Macron’s offer to engage in dialogue on the role of nuclear deterrence in European security could play a prominent role if transatlantic security relations continue to deteriorate.
Yet France’s potential role in European security is limited by military and budgetary constraints. In addition, uncertainties pertaining to the country’s political future raise further questions.
