Geoeconomic risks arise when states deliberately use economic tools – such as sanctions, trade restrictions, or investment controls – to exert pressure or inflict harm. This paper introduces a structured framework for identifying and analysing such risks, offering tools to map disruptions, trace causal mechanisms, and assess impacts on Finland’s vital societal functions. It also presents a geoeconomic preparedness toolbox to guide policymaking, including measures for mapping and monitoring dependencies, reducing external risks through capacity building, diversification, and friendshoring, and building deterrence and response capabilities.
While the framework is broadly applicable across national contexts, the paper focuses on Finland. As a small, open economy deeply embedded in global value chains, Finland faces structural dependencies that can be exploited amid geopolitical tensions. To address this, the paper recommends a comprehensive de-risking strategy that balances economic openness with national security. Although such measures may come at a cost, they are necessary for maintaining national autonomy in an era of strategic competition.
The publication has been updated on 5 August 2025: In Figure 1, the label ‘travel’ was corrected to ‘threat’.
