The war economy in Finland and Europe in the 2030s

The war economy in Finland and Europe in the 2030s project examines the war economy in a transforming economic and security environment and analyses Finland’s preparedness to organise its national economy to respond to the most severe crises and disruptions. The project is done in cooperation with the National Emergency Supply Agency.

Traditionally, a war economy refers to economic and production arrangements through which the resources and factors of production of a national economy are redirected to support the nation’s military defence capability. In the 2020s, however, both warfare and the structures of the economy and politics have undergone significant change. Finland’s military alignment, shifts in global trade, technological development, changes in the security environment of Europe and Finland, and, in particular, the systemic and long-term threat posed by Russia are reshaping the functioning and structures of Finland’s economy as well as its political relationships in ways that earlier analyses of the nation’s war-economy preparedness model have not taken into account.

A critical re-examination of earlier concepts and models is necessary in order to develop a comprehensive understanding of how a war economy would be implemented in Finland. The research applies a multi-method approach drawing on the fields of political economy, geoeconomics and international relations. The project consists of two work packages. The first conceptualises, structures and analyses the war economy both in general terms and in the Finnish case, and develops an understanding of how earlier models can be updated to better reflect the realities of today’s economic environment. The second phase assesses the prerequisites for a European war economy, including war-economy measures implemented in the contexts of the EU and NATO, as well as possible development needs related to them. The project will produce two FIIA Research Papers.

The research project is led by the Programme Director Dr Harri Mikkola. The project team includes Research Fellows Topi Juga, Markus Holmgren, Tomi Kristeri, Joel Linnainmäki and Cordelia Buchanan Ponzek. The project started in March 2026 and will end in March 2027.