Kazakhstan aspires to conduct a multi-vector foreign policy, but in practice, this approach is uneven: its relations with Russia are stronger than its partnerships with other actors.
Astana’s multi-vectorism is limited by Kazakhstan’s economic dependency on Russia, Russia’s post-imperial posturing towards Kazakhstan, and Kazakhstan’s authoritarian mode of governance.
Since Russia launched its full-scale war in Ukraine, Kazakhstan’s economic interactions with Russia have increased further. Local businesses have capitalized on Kazakhstan’s geoeconomic middle ground between Russia and the West, while Kazakhstani elites have continued to view Russia as a suitable partner, even in the most strategic sectors of the economy.
The future of Kazakhstan’s foreign policy balancing will depend on multiple domestic, regional, and international developments, many of which cannot currently be predicted with precision or fully integrated into the analysis. For this reason alone, the West will need to pay constant attention to this key Central Asian country and adopt a cautious political approach towards it.
