Belarus 2025: The Revolution Is Over, but the Crises Live On

The Belarusian Revolution matters today in three important ways. First, it remains a massive constraint for the Lukashenka regime both domestically and internationally. The trauma of 2020 and the structural causes of the Revolution drive the regime’s policies. Second, the revolutionary legacy empowers the Belarusian exiled opposition, serving as the main source of its external legitimization. Third, the Belarusian Revolution helped to forge the new EU policy towards Belarus, which the Russian invasion of Ukraine and Lukashenka’s co-aggression in it further entrenched. As a result, the ongoing amalgamation of the questions of the future of the country and the new regional security architecture will continue to determine the EU’s approach towards Belarus. We finalize this essay with a brief discussion of what lies ahead for the regime and the country.