Ceasefires in their various shapes and forms have become substitutes for comprehensive peace agreements at a time when geopolitical contestation between great powers has intensified to such an extent that the prospects for forging sustainable peace processes have greatly diminished.
This trend is visible in recent cases in Gaza, Ukraine and Myanmar, where ceasefires have not led to lasting settlements.
Ceasefires alone do not resolve the underlying drivers of conflicts. They do, however, reduce civilian suffering, create space for conducting negotiations, and build trust. In other words, they serve as stepping stones on the pathways to peace.
The effectiveness of any ceasefire depends on how it is implemented. Ceasefire monitoring is a highly technical endeavour requiring specialist know-how and expertise, including transitional security arrangements and the use of technology.
A ceasefire needs to be linked to a political process that will lead to resolving the conflict. Although the pursuit of peace is a worthy cause, the conditions for sustainable peace in many ongoing conflicts are limited, and expectations therefore need to be moderated. Even so, securing a ceasefire is a notable achievement in any violent situation.
